Delphi Method Matrix

The Delphi Method Matrix is a structured communication technique originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method. It relies on a panel of experts who answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts' forecasts and reasons. This process is repeated until the group converges towards a consensus.

At a very high level, the Delphi Method Matrix is used in the context of business, decision-making, forecasting.

Delphi Method Matrix quadrant descriptions, including examples
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What is the Delphi Method Matrix?

A visual explanation is shown in the image above. The Delphi Method Matrix can be described as a matrix with the following quadrants:

  1. High Agreement, High Confidence: Consensus with strong confidence: 'The market will grow by 20% next year.'
  2. High Agreement, Low Confidence: Consensus with weak confidence: 'The market might grow by 20% next year.'
  3. Low Agreement, High Confidence: Divergent views with strong confidence: 'The market will either grow by 20% or decline by 10% next year.'
  4. Low Agreement, Low Confidence: Divergent views with weak confidence: 'The market might grow by 20% or decline by 10% next year.'

What is the purpose of the Delphi Method Matrix?

The Delphi Method Matrix is a powerful tool used for decision-making and forecasting in business environments. It was developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s and has since been adapted for various applications, including market research, policy analysis, and strategic planning.

The process begins with the selection of a panel of experts who are knowledgeable about the topic at hand. These experts are asked to provide their opinions and forecasts through a series of questionnaires. After each round of questionnaires, a facilitator summarizes the responses and provides feedback to the panel. This iterative process continues until a consensus is reached or the range of responses narrows significantly.

One of the key strengths of the Delphi Method Matrix is its ability to harness the collective intelligence of a diverse group of experts while minimizing the influence of dominant individuals. The anonymity of responses ensures that each expert's opinion is given equal weight, reducing the risk of bias and groupthink.

Use cases for the Delphi Method Matrix include predicting future market trends, assessing the impact of new technologies, and developing strategic business plans. For example, a company might use the Delphi Method Matrix to forecast the adoption rate of a new product, identify potential risks and opportunities, or evaluate the feasibility of entering a new market.

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What templates are related to Delphi Method Matrix?

The following templates can also be categorized as business, decision-making, forecasting and are therefore related to Delphi Method Matrix: Product-Market Matrix, 4 Ps Marketing Mix Matrix, AI Capability-Value Proposition Alignment Matrix, AI Innovation-Value Alignment Matrix, AI Maturity Matrix, AI-Value Proposition Alignment Matrix, AI-Value Proposition Matrix, AIDA Marketing Matrix. You can browse them using the menu above.

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